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The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries

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Author Info
Ida Aghdas Mirzaie
Magda E. Kandil

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Abstract

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/200.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 06 Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/200

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Related research
Keywords: Real effective exchange rates ; Inflation ; Prices ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-08, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
  9. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Barbone, Luca & Rivera-Batiz, Francisco, 1987. "Foreign capital and the contractionary impact of currency devaluation, with an application to Jamaica," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Magda Kandil & Ida Mirzaie, 2006. "Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 469-491, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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