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The U.S. Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s?

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Author Info

  • Ben Hunt
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

Based on a version of the IMF's global economy model set up to analyse macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent accelerating productivity growth in the United States may have contributed to the US real exchange rate appreciation and the trade balance deterioration witnessed in the second half of the 1990s. The paper concludes that productivity is only part of this story. A portfolio preference shift in favour of US assets, possibly triggered by faster productivity growth, and some uncertainty and learning about the persistence of both shocks are needed to match the data more satisfactorily. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2005

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/194.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/194

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Related research

Keywords: Trade policy; Budget deficits; Real effective exchange rates;

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References

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  1. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
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  13. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabio Ghironi & Viktors Stebunovs, 2010. "The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 765, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  3. George-Marios Angeletos & Vasia Panousi, 2011. "Financial Integration, Entrepreneurial Risk and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 16761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
  6. Massimiliano Pisani & Pietro Cova & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 09/64, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Vines, David, 2009. "The process by which the Dollar will fall: the effect of forward-looking consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 7325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ogawa, Eiji & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2009. "External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 225-239, May.
  9. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
  10. Viktors Stebunovs & Fabio Ghironi, 2008. "The Domestic and International Effects of Financial Deregulation," 2008 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. David D. VanHoose, 2004. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Critical Appraisal," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 193-215, 04.
  12. Alessandro Rebucci & Nicoletta Batini & Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Non-TradableTotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/63, International Monetary Fund.

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