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The Fiscal Smile

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Author Info

  • Maria Antoinette Silgoner
  • Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma
  • Gerhard Reitschuler

Abstract

We study the smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures or revenues) on business cycle volatility for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-99. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. We present evidence that for government expenditure ratios exceeding an estimated value of about 38 percent, a further expansion in the size of the government could actually lead to an increase in cyclical volatility. This may call for a reconsideration of the use of fiscal stabilizers for business cycle smoothing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/182.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/182

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Related research

Keywords: Government expenditures; Economic models; fiscal policy; fiscal stabilizers; government expenditure; expenditure; expenditures; expenditure ratio; government expenditure ratio; government spending; discretionary fiscal policy; budget deficits; public expenditures; public spending; fiscal measures; expenditure ratios; government expenditure share; public finances; taxation; tax system; fiscal expenditures; government expenditure ratios; expenditure share; tax reforms; high tax burden; tax burden; government budget; levels of public spending; budget deficit; fiscal policy goals; ratio of government expenditures; tax cuts; public debt; tax revenues; fiscal balance; cyclical fiscal policy; aggregate demand; budgetary position; fiscal stabilization; fiscal indicators;

References

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  1. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
  3. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  4. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Stabilization Policy, Learning by Doing, and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Huber, Gerald & Kocher, Martin G. & Sutter, Matthias, 2003. "Government strength, power dispersion in governments and budget deficits in OECD-countries. A voting power approach," Munich Reprints in Economics 18164, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  7. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," NBER Working Papers 5537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  9. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Peter S. Heller, 2002. "Considering the IMF's Perspective on a "Sound Fiscal Policy"," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 59(1), pages 141-, February.
  12. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  13. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  14. Alberto Alesina & Romain Wacziarg, 1997. "Openness, Country Size and the Government," NBER Working Papers 6024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
  16. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Larch, Martin & Jonung, Lars & Fischer, Jonas, 2008. "101 proposals to reform the Stability and Growth Pact. Why so many? A survey," MPRA Paper 20592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hüseyin SEN & Ayse KAYA, 2013. "The Role of Taxes as an Automatic Stabilizer: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 303-313, December.
  3. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, . "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," Borradores de Economia 434, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Virén , Matti, 2005. "Government size and output volatility: is there a relationship?," Research Discussion Papers 8/2005, Bank of Finland.
  5. Matti Virén, 2005. "Government size and output volatility: is there a relationship?," Macroeconomics 0508025, EconWPA.
  6. Dinga, Emil & Ionescu, Cornel & Padurean, Elena, 2010. "Discretionary Policy versus Non-Discretionary Policy in the Economic Adjustment Process," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 184-207, December.

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