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Time-Varying Thresholds: An Application to Purchasing Power Parity

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Author Info
Serineh Najarian
H. L. Leon
Abstract

This paper introduces a time-varying threshold autoregressive model (TVTAR), which is used to examine the persistence of deviations from PPP. We find support for the stationary TVTAR against the unit root hypothesis; however, for some developing countries, we do not reject the TVTAR with a unit root in the corridor regime. We calculate magnitudes, frequencies, and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from forecasted changes in exchange rates. A key result is asymmetric adjustment. In developing countries, the average cumulative deviation from forecasts during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice the corresponding measure during periods when exchange rates are above forecasts.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/181.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 13 Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/181

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Keywords: Purchasing power parity ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Adrian Pagan, 2002. "Learning About Models And Their Fit To Data ," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jonathan Haskel & Holger Wolf, 2001. "The Law of One Price - A Case Study," NBER Working Papers 8112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and Switching Regimes," Working Papers 1999:4, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 08 Jun 2000. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
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  11. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2002. "The Exchange Rate in a Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Transactions Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  16. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models," Working Papers 465, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Jayasri Dutta, 2002. "Dread of Depreciation: Measuring Real Exchange Rate Interventions," IMF Working Papers 02/63, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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