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Potential Output and total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa

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  • Vivek B. Arora
  • Ashok Bhundia
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    Abstract

    This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of around 3 percent. The implied output gap provides statistically significant information for predicting inflation and could thus provide valuable input for formulating macroeconomic policy. Growth accounting and regression analysis suggest that an increase in trend GDP growth after the end of apartheid in 1994 is attributable to higher TFP growth driven by trade liberalization and greater private sector participation.

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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16828
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/178.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/178

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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Patrick Minford, 1997. "Growth, Employment and Economic Reform Lessons for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 65(4), pages 202-213, December.
    3. David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman & Alexander Hoffmaister, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 5048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
    5. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. P.D.F. Strydom, 1995. "International Trade and Economic Growth: The Opening-up of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 63(4), pages 306-316, December.
    7. Arvind Subramanian & Gunnar Jonsson, 2000. "Dynamic Gains From Trade," IMF Working Papers 00/45, International Monetary Fund.
    8. G.L. Wet, 1995. "The Prognosis for Growth and Development in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 63(4), pages 263-270, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Thurlow, James, 2006. "Has trade liberalization in South Africa affected men and women differently?:," DSGD discussion papers 36, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Cheteni, Priviledge, 2013. "Transport Infrastructure Investment and Transport Sector Productivity on Economic Growth in South Africa (1975-2011)," MPRA Paper 53175, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2013.
    3. Torfinn Harding & Jørn Rattsø, 2005. "The barrier model of productivity growth: South Africa," Discussion Papers 425, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    4. Rulof P. Burger & Francis J. Teal, 2014. "The effect of schooling on worker productivity: Evidence from a South African industry panel," Working Papers 04/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    5. Kumar, Saten & Pacheco, Gail & Rossouw, Stephanie, 2010. "How to Increase the Growth Rate in South Africa?," MPRA Paper 26105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Edwards, Lawrence & Rankin, Neil A. & Schöer, Volker, 2008. "South African exporting firms: What do we know and what should we know?," MPRA Paper 16906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Luc Eyraud, 2009. "Why isn't South Africa Growing Faster? a Comparative Approach," IMF Working Papers 09/25, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stan Du plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The Cyclicality Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In South Africa Since 1994," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 391-411, 09.

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