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Potential Output and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa

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Author Info
Ashok Bhundia
Vivek B. Arora
Abstract

This paper provides estimates of potential output growth in post-apartheid South Africa using both time trend techniques and a production function approach which indicates a potential growth rate of around 3 percent. The implied output gap provides statistically significant information for predicting inflation and could thus provide valuable input for formulating macroeconomic policy. Growth accounting and regression analysis suggest that an increase in trend GDP growth after the end of apartheid in 1994 is attributable to higher TFP growth driven by trade liberalization and greater private sector participation.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/178.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 08 Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/178

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Keywords: Productivity ; South Africa ;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Patrick Minford, 1997. "Growth, Employment and Economic Reform Lessons for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 65(4), pages 202-213, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. G.L. Wet, 1995. "The Prognosis for Growth and Development in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 63(4), pages 263-270, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 1133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2000. "Dynamic Gains from Trade - Evidence from South Africa," IMF Working Papers 00/45, International Monetary Fund.
  5. P.D.F. Strydom, 1995. "International Trade and Economic Growth: The Opening-up of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 63(4), pages 306-316, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Edwards, Lawrence & Rankin, Neil A. & Schöer, Volker, 2008. "South African exporting firms: What do we know and what should we know?," MPRA Paper 16906, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thurlow, James, 2006. "Has trade liberalization in South Africa affected men and women differently?:," DSGD discussion papers 36, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Luc Eyraud, 2009. "Why Isn't South Africa Growing Faster? A Comparative Approach," IMF Working Papers 09/25, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Godbertha Kinyondo & Margaret Mabugu, 2008. "The General Equilibrium Effects of a Productivity Increase on the Economy and Gender in South Africa," Working Papers 200801, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Torfinn Harding and Jørn Rattsø, 2005. "The barrier model of productivity growth: South Africa," Discussion Papers 425, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Emmanuel Brou Aka & Bernardin Akitoby & Dhaneshwar Ghura & Amor Tahari, 2004. "Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/176, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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