This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Matteo Ciccarelli
Alessandro Rebucci

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp03171.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/171.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 02 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/171

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Working Papers 8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Avinash Persaud & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2001. "Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite: Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/134, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?," IMF Working Papers 02/54, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 603, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reint Gropp & Gerard Moerman, 2003. "Measurement of contagion in banks’ equity prices," Working Paper Series 297, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Simone Manganelli, 2005. "Measuring comovements by regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 501, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The yearly budget of IDEAS is exactly $0: it relies entirely on volunteer work.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.