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Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Serineh Najarian
H. L. Leon
Abstract

This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences in magnitudes, frequencies, and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from fixed and time-varying thresholds, both between over-appreciations and over-depreciations and between developed and developing countries. In particular, the average cumulative sum of deviations during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice that of the sum during periods of over-appreciation, and is larger for developing than for advanced countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/159.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 21 Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/159

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Keywords: Real effective exchange rates ; Purchasing power parity ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mario Cerrato & Nick Sarantis, 2006. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(7), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
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