Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil
AbstractThis paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil''s trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/140.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect,"
NBER Working Papers
8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
- M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued), Netherlands Central Bank 77, Netherlands Central Bank.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- Bughin, Jacques, 1996. "Capacity Constraints and Export Performance: Theory and Evidence from Belgian Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 187-204, June.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-64, May.
- Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in an Open Financially Integrated Emerging Economy: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department 26, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999.
"Noise trading and exchange rate regimes,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Jeanne, Olivier & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luiz Fernando Figueiredo & Pedro Fachada & Sérgio Goldenstein, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Brazil: Remarks on the Inflation Targeting Regime, Public Debt Management and Open Market Operations," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department 37, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989.
"Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
- Paul Krugman, 1988. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
- Jackson, John D. & Smyth, David J., 1985. "Specifying differential cyclical response in economic time series : Capacity utilization and demand for imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 149-161, April.
- Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
- Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade, EconWPA 0502013, EconWPA.
- Brieuc Monfort, 2008. "Chile," IMF Working Papers 08/128, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.