Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy
AbstractThis paper examines determinants of inflation in Ukraine during 1993-2002 in a cointegrating framework. Two basic theoretical models-a markup and a money market model-are tested. While broad money is cointegrated with the CPI for the whole sample and for early subsamples, the cointegration ceases to be statistically significant between 1996-2002, in part because of strong remonetization. The mark-up model offers a more consistent and well-fitting overall framework for 1996-2002 data, pointing inter alia to a greater role of administered prices in the CPI within a fairly mainstream inflation process. The "long-term" monetary transmission mechanism operates through the exchange rate and wages, but broad money clearly enters short-term inflation determinants. Prudent macroeconomic policies, grain harvests, and administrative decisions explain the sharp decline of inflation over 2000-2002.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/126.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998.
"Modeling Inflation in Australia,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-49, October.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gunnar Jonsson, 1999. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 99/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Paula De Masi & Vincent Koen, 1997. "Prices in Transition," IMF Working Papers 97/158, International Monetary Fund.
- Brieuc Monfort & Santiago PeÃ±a, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay," IMF Working Papers 08/270, International Monetary Fund.
- Franziska Ohnsorge & Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Dollarized Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2005.
"Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
476, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Boriss Siliverstovs & Olena Bilan, 2006. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(6), pages 66-81, December.
- Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
- van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
- Era Dabla-Norris & Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia," IMF Working Papers 06/248, International Monetary Fund.
- Felix Hammermann & Mark Flanagan, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," Kiel Working Papers 1373, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Fakhri, Hasanov & Khudayar, Hasanli, 2011. "Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?," MPRA Paper 29559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Federico Marongiu, 2004. "Devaluación e Inflacion en Argentina despues de la Convertibilidad," Macroeconomics 0404013, EconWPA.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.