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An Intraday Pricing Model of Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • Rafael Romeu
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    Abstract

    Market makers learn about asset values as they set intraday prices and absorb portfolio flows. Absorbing these flows causes inventory imbalances. Previous work has argued that market makers change prices to manage incoming flows and offset inventory imbalances. This study argues that they have multiple instruments, or ways to manage inventory imbalances and learn about evolving asset values. Hence, they smooth inventory levels and update prior information about assets using multiple instruments. In ignoring other instruments, previous studies have ignored the information that these provide and overemphasize the role of price changes in inventory management. The model presented here provides new estimates of asymmetric information and inventory effects, the price impact of each instrument, the cost of liquidity, and the impact of an intervention on these costs.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 03/115.

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    Length: 35
    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:03/115

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    Related research

    Keywords: Markets; Liquidity; Economic models; inventory; equation; equations; inventory management; inventory control; probability; functional form; inventories; statistics; correlation; descriptive statistics; statistic; predictions; optimization; random walk; measurement errors; correlations; mean value theorem; dummy variable; vector autoregression; random variables; empirical estimation; linear models; measurement error; autocorrelation; dummy variables; explanatory power; trading system; standard deviation;

    References

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    1. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ananth Madhavan & Seymour Smidt, . "A Bayesian Model of Intraday Specialist Pricing," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," NBER Working Papers 5936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Madhavan, Ananth & Sofianos, George, 1998. "An empirical analysis of NYSE specialist trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 189-210, May.
    6. H. Henry Cao & Martin D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "Inventory Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 325-364, January.
    7. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
    8. Hans R. Stoll, . "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-78, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    9. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-75.
    10. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, . "Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    12. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
    14. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    15. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    16. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
    17. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 361-376, December.
    18. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1988. "Trades, quotes, inventories, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, December.
    20. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
    21. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Rafael Romeu, 2004. "A Puzzle of Microstructure Market Maker Models," IMF Working Papers 04/6, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rafael Romeu & Lawrence Ausubel, 2005. "Bidder Participation and Information in Currency Auctions," IMF Working Papers 05/157, International Monetary Fund.

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