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Escaping the Curse of Oil? The Case of Gabon

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  • Ludvig Söderling
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    Abstract

    This paper studies the prospects for sustainable growth and economic development in Gabon, in the face of a severe decline in its main source of income and growth, i.e. oil. A simple Computable General Equilibrium model is used to simulate the development of the non-oil economy under various assumptions. The results of the simulations underline Gabon''s dependence on foreign financing-especially private-and its vulnerability to variations in oil prices. The potential role of an income stabilization fund is also discussed.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/93.

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    Length: 36
    Date of creation: 01 May 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/93

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    Related research

    Keywords: Oil; Savings; Consumption; private capital; public investment; private investment; capital stock; private capital flows; foreign securities; capital accumulation; external financing; tax rate; tax revenue; real effective exchange rate; capital flows; capital outflow; investment projects; capital inflows; foreign direct investment; debt service; direct investment; investment incentives; investors; investment contracts; commodity prices; capital good; capital outflows; current account balance; external borrowing; rates of return; capital productivity; private capital inflows; net foreign assets; capital increases; capital ratio; export revenues; domestic borrowing; investment income; private investors; real appreciation; foreign currency; factor markets; government securities;

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    19. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
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