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International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse

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Author Info

  • Renee Fry
  • Vance Martin
  • Brenda González-Hermosillo
  • Mardi Dungey

Abstract

We examine empirically the episode of extraordinary turbulence in global financial markets during 1998. The analysis focuses on the market assessment of credit risk captured by daily movements in bond spreads for twelve countries. A dynamic latent factor model is estimated using indirect inference to quantify the effects of unanticipated shocks across borders or "contagion," controlling for common global shocks, country-specific shocks and regional factors. The results show that there were substantial international contagion effects resulting from both the Russian and LTCM crises. The proportion of volatility explained by contagion is not necessarily larger in developing than in developed nations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/74.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/74

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Noy, Ilan, 2008. "Sovereign default risk, the IMF and creditor moral hazard," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 64-78, February.
  2. Orlov, Alexei G., 2009. "A cospectral analysis of exchange rate comovements during Asian financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 742-758, December.
  3. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Vance Martin & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2003. "Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/251, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Saleem, Kashif, 2008. "International linkage of the Russian market and the Russian financial crisis: A multivariate GARCH analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Dahl, Drew & Logan, Andrew, 2007. "The exposure of international banks to cross-country interdependencies: An empirical analysis of overdue claims," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 203-213, July.
  7. Morales, Lucía & Andreosso-O’Callaghan, Bernadette, 2012. "The current global financial crisis: Do Asian stock markets show contagion or interdependence effects?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 616-626.
  8. Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1981108.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  9. Apostolos Thomadakis, 2012. "Contagion or Flight-to-Quality Phenomena in Stock and Bond Returns," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0612, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  10. Abdullah Yalama, 2012. "International Financial Contagion: The Role of the UK," Bogazici Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 115-129.
  11. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy: Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 300, Econometric Society.
  12. Drew Dahl & Andrew Logan, 2005. "The exposure of international bank loans to third-country risk: an empirical analysis of overdue claims," Bank of England working papers 247, Bank of England.
  13. Ilan Noy, 2004. "Do IMF Bailouts Result in Moral Hazard? An Events-Study Approach," Working Papers 200402, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  14. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance, 2006. "Contagion in international bond markets during the Russian and the LTCM crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, April.
  15. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Regional Vulnerability : The Case of East Asia," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 776, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  16. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
  17. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society.

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