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Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation

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  • Gianni De Nicoló
  • Myron L. Kwast
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    Abstract

    We argue that firm interdependencies, as measured by correlations of stock returns, provide an indicator of systemic risk potential. We find a positive trend in stock return correlations net of diversification effects for a sample of U.S. Large and Complex Banking Organizations over 1988-99. This finding suggests that the systemic risk potential in the financial sector may have increased. In addition, we find a positive consolidation elasticity of correlations. However, such elasticity exhibits substantial time variation and likely declined in the latter part of the decade. Thus, factors other than consolidation have also been responsible for the upward trend in return correlations.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/55.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/55

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    1. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
    2. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lisa M. DeFerrari & David E. Palmer, 2001. "Supervision of large complex banking organizations," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 47-57.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 2000. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation - A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt56j4143f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    7. Dow, James, 2000. "What Is Systemic Risk? Moral Hazard, Initial Shocks, and Propagation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 1-24, December.
    8. Mico Loretan & William B. English, 2000. "Evaluating "correlation breakdowns" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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