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The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?

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Author Info
Matteo Ciccarelli
Alessandro Rebucci

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Abstract

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the four largest euro area countries by means Bayesian estimation of dynamic econometric models. Based on pre-EMU evidence from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, we show that: (i) there are differences in the timing of the effects of monetary policy on economic activity, but their cumulative impact after two years is rather homogeneous; (ii) the transmission mechanism seems to have changed over time in the run-up to EMU but its degree of heterogeneity has not decreased; (iii) the "European-wide" effects of monetary policy may have become faster in the second half of the 1990s. We interpret this evidence by conjecturing that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy had already become relatively homogenous in the second part of the 1990s.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/54.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/54

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; France ; Germany ; Italy ; Spain ; European Economic and Monetary Union ; Economic policy ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Luca Dedola & Francesco Lippi, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industry Data of Five OECD Countries," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1833, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Giovannetti, Giorgia & Marimon, Ramon, 1998. "An EMU with Different Transmission Mechanisms," CEPR Discussion Papers 2016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Eva Ortega & Enrique Alberola, 2000. "Transmission of Shocks and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area. An Exercise With NiGEM," Banco de España Working Papers 0010, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlo Monticelli & Oreste Tristani, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 58-83, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, . "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: an Evaluation," Working Papers 132, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoit Mojon, 1996. "The transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  15. Luca Sala, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: A Factor Model Approach," Macroeconomics 0205005, EconWPA, revised 15 May 2002. [Downloadable!]
  16. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Matteo Ciccarelli, 2001. "Testing Restrictions In Normal Data Models Using Gibbs Sampling," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-17, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  18. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 2002. "Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 1998. "A Red Letter Day?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ehrmann, M. & Gambacorta, L. & Martínez-Pagés, J. & Sevestre, P. & Worms, A., 2002. "Financial Systems and the Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 93, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2005. "Changing Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. –Evidence from a Time-Varying Coefficient VAR," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 144, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2007. "How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 471-484, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Benoit Mojon & Gert Peersman, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the Euro area," Working Paper Series 092, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fabrizio Spargoli, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms within the European Monetary Union," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(6), pages 31-68, November-. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ester Faia, 2005. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in A Currency Area," Working Papers 97, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Claudia M. Buch, 2001. "Financial Market Integration in a Monetary Union," Kiel Working Papers 1062, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. William T. Gavin & David M. Kemme, 2007. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Working Papers 2004-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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