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Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals

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Author Info
M. Sbracia
Alessandro Prati

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Abstract

This paper studies how uncertainty about fundamentals contributed to currency crises from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We find evidenceCbased on a monthly dataset of Consensus forecasts for six Asian countries in the period January 1995-May 2001Cconfirming the theoretical predictions (from both unique- and multiple-equilibria models) that: (i) speculative attacks depend not only on actual and expected fundamentals but also on the variance of speculators' expectations about them; and (ii) the sign of the effect of the variance depends on whether expected fundamentals are "good" or "bad." These results are robust to the definition of exchange rate pressure indices, the estimation sample (precrisis vs. full sample), the method chosen to avoid spurious correlations, and possible time-varying coefficients for the mean, the variance, and the threshold separating good from bad expected fundamentals.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/3.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 09 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/3

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Keywords: Currencies Exchange rates Economic policy Public information Economic models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hali J. Edison & Robin Brooks & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 01/190, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dumas, B. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "How Long Do Unilateral Target Zones Last?," DELTA Working Papers 94-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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  8. Grilli, Vittorio U., 1986. "Buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 143-156, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
  12. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Eduardo Borensztein & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Sbracia, Massimo & Zaghini, Andrea, 2001. "Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 203-222, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Flood, Robert P. & Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Self-fulfilling risk predictions:: an application to speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 245-268, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Francesco Caramazza & Luca Antonio Ricci & Ranil Salgado, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christina Bannier, 2003. "The Role of Information Disparity in the 1994/95 Mexican Peso," International Finance 0310001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Guido De Blasio & Sabrina Di Addario, 2002. "Labor market pooling: evidence from Italian industrial districts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 453, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gaston R. Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/174, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2004. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," FRU Working Papers 2004/05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Charalambos Christofides & Christian B. Mulder & Andrew Tiffin, 2003. "The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practice, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings," IMF Working Papers 03/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christina E. Bannier, 2003. "Privacy or Publicity - Who Drives the Wheel?," Game Theory and Information 0309006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sanne Zwart, 2005. "Liquidity runs with endogenous information acquisition," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/18, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2001. "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 8683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian currency turmoil of 2002: a nonlinear analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 289-306. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Louise Allsopp, 2003. "Speculative behaviour, debt default and contagion: A stylised framework of the Latin American Crisis 2001-2002," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christina E. Bannier & Jochen Michaelis, 2003. "The Role of Information Disparity in the Mexican Peso Crisis 1994/95: Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics 44/03, University of Kassel, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mark Carlson & Galina Hale, 2006. "Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1375-1375. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps (J.P.E., June 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 209, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Francisco Peñaranda & Jón Daníelsson, 2007. "On the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability," Economics Working Papers 1003, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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