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Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

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Author Info
Daniel Leigh
Marco Rossi
Abstract

Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is unstable; but that (ii) a suitable combination of these unstable forecasts yields a forecast that reliably outperforms that generated by an autoregressive model. We then propose a two-stage combination forecast obtained by taking the median of the top five performing individual forecasts. This two-stage forecast reliably improves on autoregressive benchmarks and outperforms the combination forecast based on all the individual forecasts.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/231.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/231

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Related research
Keywords: Economic growth ; Turkey ; Inflation targeting ; Economic indicators ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 10 Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alejandro Simone, . "In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina," IMF Working Papers 01/30, International Monetary Fund.
  4. G. C. Lim & Laura Papi, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2002. "Asset Price Bubbles, Price Stability, and Monetary Policy: Japan' s Experience," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(3), pages 35-76, October. [Downloadable!]
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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