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Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence from 17 Industrial Countries

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Author Info
Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye
Douglas Laxton

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Abstract

Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some evidence in favor of the Lucas critique by showing that the short-run unemployment-inflation trade-off tends to improve in countries that are successful in providing low and stable inflation.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/220.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 02 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/220

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Unemployment ; Inflation ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  3. Guy Debelle & Jenny Wilkinson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Some Lessons from an Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eric Schaling, . "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    Other versions:
  8. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1996. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Working Papers 96/69, International Monetary Fund.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 195-225. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fischer, Stanley, 1996. " Robert Lucas's Nobel Memorial Prize," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 98(1), pages 11-31, March.
  13. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Douglas Laxton & Michael Bleany, 1999. "Real Interest Rates and Real Exchange Rates : Evidence from Indexed Bonds," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 942, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Viktor Kotlan & David Navratil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilisation Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0310006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kanda Naknoi & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2005. "On the Benefits of Exchange Rate Flexibility under Endogenous Tradedness of Goods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 405, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tamim Bayoumi & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Staff Reports 182, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 07/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Eyal Argov & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Chmielewski, Tomasz & Kot, Adam, 2006. "Impact of globalisation? Changes in the MTM in Poland," MPRA Paper 8386, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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