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Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS

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Author Info

  • Markus Haacker

Abstract

The paper addresses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita output and income, with particular emphasis on the role of labor mobility between the formal and informal sectors, and the impact of the epidemic on investment decisions. The study finds that HIV/AIDS affects both the supply of labor and the demand for labor in the formal sector. Only if there is a significant rise in the capital-labor ratio, will there be an increase in formal sector employment. However, this is associated with a decline in the rate of return to capital. To the extent that companies respond to this by reducing investment, conventional models underestimate the adverse impact on employment, per capita output, and income. The analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on output is complemented by an assessment of the impact on income.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/195.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/195

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Southern Africa; hiv/aids; hiv; aids; population growth; population growth rate; birth rates; hiv positive; health services; mortality rates; birth; aids economics; aids prevalence; particular country; medical services; hiv infection; mortality rate; infant mortality; sex workers; aids epidemic;

References

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  1. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
  3. Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wobst, Peter & Thurlow, James, 2005. "The Road to Pro-Poor Growth in Zambia: Past Lessons and Future Challenges," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 37, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  2. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. José A. Cuesta, 2008. "Does a mature AIDS epidemic threaten growth?," IDB Publications 6737, Inter-American Development Bank.
  4. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  5. Annim, Samuel Kobina & Dasmani, Isaac, 2010. "The joint effect of human capital and income inequalities on HIV/AIDS prevalence: An exploratory investigation," MPRA Paper 21251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Garima Malik, 2006. "An Examination of the Relationship between Health and Economic Growth," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22173, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  7. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(5), pages 697-715.
  8. Emmanuel Brou Aka & Bernardin Akitoby & Amor Tahari & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2004. "Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/176, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Mohamed, Issam A.W., 2011. "Surveying HIV/AIDS Incidence in Sudan," MPRA Paper 31781, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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