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Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis

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Author Info
Hamid Faruqee

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Abstract

This paper develops a model to examine the macroeconomic implications of population aging. Using a general equilibrium framework, the analysis examines the various channels through which changes in demographics affect the economy. Age-earnings profiles are taken to summarize differences in effective labor supply across age groups and to help determine changes in consumption and saving behavior that occur over an agent's lifetime. Aggregating these supply- and demand-side effects, the implications of aging on economic activity and fiscal policy are then examined.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/16.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/16

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Keywords: Population ; Savings ; Current account ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," Papers 189, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
  4. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Projected Population Aging In Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
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  8. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  9. Hamid Faruqee & Martin Mühleisen, . "Population Aging in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven A. Symansky, 1996. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Working Papers 96/140, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Weil, David N, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-Specific Mortality," IMF Working Papers 02/19, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "International differences in social security and saving," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 225-244, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption," IFS Working Papers W95/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  16. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hamid Faruqee & Aasim M. Husain, 1995. "Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/39, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Albert Jaeger & Sheetal K. Chand, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hamid Faruqee & Martin Mühleisen, . "Population Aging in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ralph C Bryant, 2006. "Asymmetric Demography and Macroeconomic Interactions Across National Borders," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Warwick J. McKibbin & Jeremy Nguyen, 2004. "Modelling Global Demographic Change:Results For Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2004-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lamin Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hamid Faruqee & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging," IMF Working Papers 06/95, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Migration from the New European Union Member States to the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 07/61, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-Specific Mortality," IMF Working Papers 02/19, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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