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Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility

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Author Info
Luis Catão
Bennett Sutton

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Abstract

While the relationship between volatility and credit risk is central to much of the literature on finance and banking, it has been largely neglected in empirical macro studies on sovereign defaults. This paper presents new econometric estimates for a panel of 25 emerging market countries over 1970-2001, breaking down aggregate volatility into its external and domestic policy components. We find that countries with historically higher macroeconomic volatility are more prone to default, and particularly so if part of this volatility is policy-induced. Reducing policy volatility thus appears to be key to improving a country's credit standing.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/149.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/149

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Related research
Keywords: Debt problems ; Exchange rate instability ; Emerging markets ; Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Capital Controls, Risk, and Liberalization Cycles," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 412-434, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2001. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 225-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    Other versions:
  10. Kenneth Kletzer, 1997. "Volatility, External Debt, and Fiscal Risk: Simulations of the Impact of Shocks on Fiscal Adjustment for Thirteen Latin American Countries," RES Working Papers 4092, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. R. Gaston Gelos, Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," Business School Working Papers 2008-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2007. "International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?," NBER Working Papers 12947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Dan Galai & Zvi Wiener, 2009. "Credit Risk Spreads in Local and Foreign Currencies," IMF Working Papers 09/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Plamen Yossifov & Richard Podpiera & Dmitriy Rozhkov & Udaibir S. Das, 2005. "Quality of Financial Policies and Financial System Stress," IMF Working Papers 05/173, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," NBER Working Papers 11600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2005. "Catalyzing Private Capital Flows: Do IMF Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," Documentos de Trabajo 280, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  9. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Fabiana Rocha & Ana Carolina Giuberti, 2006. "Assimetria Cíclica Na Política Fiscal Dos Estados Brasileiros," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 52, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  11. Paolo Manasse & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 163-187. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva & Ryan A. Compton, 2006. "Capital Flows And Destabilizing Policy In Latin America," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 12, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fabiana Rocha, 2007. "Política Fiscal Através Do Ciclo E Operação Dos Estabilizadores Fiscais," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 011, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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