Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?
AbstractThis paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, CÃ´te d''Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/131.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2002
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