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Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?

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  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Ludvig Söderling
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    Abstract

    This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d''Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 02/131.

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    Length: 37
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:02/131

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    Related research

    Keywords: Productivity; Agriculture; growth rates; terms of trade; gdp per capita; black market premium; economic growth; growth rate; total factor productivity; gdp growth; export ratio; per capita income; trade liberalization; growth accounting; export ratios; balance of payments; trade policies; export prices; trade openness; commercial policies; export performance; export growth; foreign trade; export crops; trade reform; tariff rate; liberalization policies; unit of labor; average tariff rate; regional integration; domestic savings; economic cooperation; economic growth rates; value of exports; conditional convergence; export sector; average tariff; domestic demand; national policies; quantitative import restrictions; impact of trade; income distribution; import prices; factor accumulation; capital growth rate; trade reforms; internal market; import restrictions; domestic price; exogenous productivity growth; liberal policies;

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1993. "A new database on human capital stock : sources, methodology and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1124, The World Bank.
    2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Madani & Dorsati & Yang & Tzu-Han & Liang & Chi-Yuan, . "Testing Endogenous Growth In South Korea And Taiwan," Department of Economics 97-16, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Berthelemy, Jean-Claude & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 1996. "Economic Growth, Convergence Clubs, and the Role of Financial Development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 300-328, April.
    6. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
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