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"Big Bang" Versus Gradualism in Economic Reforms: An Intertemporal Analysis with an Application to China

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Author Info
Andrew Feltenstein
Saleh M. Nsouli

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Abstract

This paper reviews briefly the controversy in the literature concerning the speed of adjustment and sequencing of reforms, and presents a model parameterized with Chinese data. The model is used to generate different policy simulations to illustrate some of the key issues in the debate on the speed and sequencing of reforms, and not to provide a basis for policy recommendations for China. The simulations highlight the importance of the criteria being used for determining speed and sequencing. The paper also underscores the limitations involved in attempting to derive conclusions from the model, given the complexity of the issues.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/98.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/98

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Keywords: Economic reform ; China ; Privatization ; Transition economies ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Feltenstein, Andrew & Lebow, David & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1990. "Savings, Commodity Market Rationing, and the Real Rate of Interest in China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 234-52, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 889-906, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Qian, Yingyi & Xu, Chenggang, 1998. "Innovation and Bureaucracy under Soft and Hard Budget Constraints," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(1), pages 151-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Portes, Richard & Santorum, Anita, 1987. "Money and the consumption goods market in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 354-371, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lal, Deepak, 1987. "The Political Economy of Economic Liberalization," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 273-99, January.
  9. Jefferson, Gary H. & Xu, Wenyi, 1991. "The impact of reform on socialist enterprises in transition: Structure, conduct, and performance in Chinese industry," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 45-64, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Groves, Theodore, et al, 1994. "Autonomy and Incentives in Chinese State Enterprises," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 183-209, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael Mussa, 1984. "The Adjustment Process and the Timing of Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 1458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Yusuf, Shahid, 1994. "China's Macroeconomic Performance and Management during Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 71-92, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Naughton, Barry, 1987. "Macroeconomic policy and response in the chinese economy: The impact of the reform process," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 334-353, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Feltenstein, Andrew & Ha, Jiming, 1991. "Measurement of repressed inflation in China : The lack of coordination between monetary policy and price controls," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 279-294, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hofman, Bert, 1993. "An analysis of Chinese fiscal data over the reform period," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 213-230. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jefferson, Gary H & Rawski, Thomas G, 1994. "Enterprise Reform in Chinese Industry," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 47-70, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fischer, Stanley & Gelb, Alan, 1991. "The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 91-105, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and Sequencing of Reforms: Competing Views and the Role of Credibility," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(3), pages 337-62.
  20. Michael W. Bell & Kalpana Kochhar & Hoe Ee Khor, 1993. "China at the Threshold of a Market Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 107, International Monetary Fund.
  21. David Burton & Kalpana Kochhar & Dubravko Mihaljek & Wanda Tseng & Hoe Ee Khor, 1994. "Economic Reform in China: A New Phase," IMF Occasional Papers 114, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Eric S. Maskin, 1999. "Recent Theoretical Work on the Soft Budget Constraint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 421-425, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Norbert Funke & Saleh M. Nsouli, 2003. "The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD): Opportunities and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 03/69, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Celine Rochon & Andrew Feltenstein, 2006. "Can Good Events Lead to Bad Outcomes? Endogenous Banking Crises and Fiscal Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 06/263, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Céline Rochon & Maral Shamloo & Andrew Feltenstein, 2007. "High Growth and Low Consumption in East Asia: How to Improve Welfare While Avoiding Financial Failures," IMF Working Papers 07/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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