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The Impact of the EMU on the Structure of European Equity Returns - An Empirical Analysis of the First 21 Months

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Author Info
Thomas Kraus
Abstract

Using symmetric data sets of 92 weekly return observations before and after the introduction of the euro, the paper analyzes the impact of the new currency on the return structure of equity markets in the European Monetary Union. Variance decompositions, cluster analyses, and principle component analyses are used to explore the changes in the structural relations. European industry factors are found to have dramatically increased in importance with the launch of the single currency, and a new 'country-size' factor in European stock returns is detected. Furthermore, inner-European correlations are documented to have been reduced sharply with the start of the monetary union.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/84.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/84

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Keywords: European Economic and Monetary Union ; Euro ; Capital markets ; Industry ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Portfolio diversification and the inter-temporal stability of international stock indices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 67-77. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert & Wessels, Roberto E., 1995. "The structure of international stock returns and the integration of capital markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 173-197, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kaplanis, Evi C., 1988. "Stability and forecasting of the comovement measures of international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Roll, Richard, 1992. " Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Naughton, Tony, 1996. "A Factor Analysis of Equity Market Relationships in Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(11), pages 725-28, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alessandro Prati & Garry J. Schinasi, 1997. "European Monetary Union and International Capital Markets: Structural Implications and Risks," IMF Working Papers 97/62, International Monetary Fund.
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