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The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana

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Author Info

  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Maitland MacFarlan

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 5 percent a year without the pandemic to between 1 and 2 percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/80.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/80

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2002. "AIDS and Income Distribution in Africa; A Micro-simulation Study for Côte d'Ivoire," Working Papers DT/2002/15, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  2. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
  3. Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(5), pages 697-715.
  4. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 02/195, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Anyanwu John & Okonkwo Ejikeme & Siliadin Yaovi Gassesse, 2012. "Working Paper 148 - Role of Fiscal Policy in Tackling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southern Africa," Working Paper Series 380, African Development Bank.
  6. Vijay P. Ojha & Basanta K. Pradhan, 2006. "The Macro-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of HIV and AIDS in India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22134, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  7. Kenneth Harttgen, 2007. "The Impact of HIV on Children´s Welfare," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 157, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Robalino, David A. & Jenkins, Carol & El Maroufi, Karim, 2002. "Risks and macroeconomic impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2874, The World Bank.

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