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Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries

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Author Info
Giulio Federico
Benedict F. W. Bingham
James Daniel
Abstract

This paper examines the case for government-led smoothing of domestic petroleum prices in the face of volatile international prices. Governments in most developing and transition countries engage in petroleum price smoothing, as the survey of country practice carried out for this paper shows. This paper reviews the potential welfare implications of petroleum price volatility, and assesses different price smoothing rules on the basis of historical oil prices. These simulations reveal the presence of a sharp trade-off between price smoothing and fiscal stability, suggesting that developing and transition country governments should engage in limited price smoothing and, if possible, rely on hedging instruments to do so.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/75.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 09 May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/75

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Related research
Keywords: Oil prices ; Developing countries ; Transition economies ; Price stabilization ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 78, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter Wickham, 1996. "Volatility of Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 96/82, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-29, May.
  4. Dixit, Avinash, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mazaheri, A, 1999. "Convenience Yield, Mean Reverting Prices, and Long Memory in the Petroleum Market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 31-50, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Massell, Benton F, 1969. "Price Stabilization and Welfare," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 284-98, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. JAVIER LEÓN & RAIMUNDO SOTO, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
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  10. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Shalit, Haim & Schmitz, Andrew, 1980. "Consumer's Surplus, Price Instability, and Consumer Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 135-52, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kletzer, Ken & Newbery, David M & Wright, Brian D, 1992. "Smoothing Primary Exporters' Price Risks: Bonds, Futures, Options and Insurance," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 641-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 1999. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 99/80, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Coady & Amine Mati & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies: Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
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