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Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility

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Author Info
Peter Isard
Douglas Laxton
Ann-Charlotte Eliasson

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Abstract

Stochastic simulations are employed to compare performance of monetary policy rules in linear and nonlinear variants of a small macro model with NAIRU uncertainity under different assumptions about the way inflation expectations are formed. Cases in which policy credibility is ignored or treated as exogenous are distinguished from cases in which credibility and inflation expectations respond endogenuously policy credibility strengthens the case for forward-looking inflation forecast based rules relative to backward-looking Taylor rules.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/7.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 05 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/7

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation targeting ; Monetary policy ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Amano, Robert & Coletti, Don & Macklem, Tiff, 1999. "Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes," Working Papers 99-8, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Armstrong, John & Black, Richard & Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David, 1998. "A robust method for simulating forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stanley Fischer, 1996. "Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-34. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Juillard, Michel & Laxton, Douglas & McAdam, Peter & Pioro, Hope, 1998. "An algorithm competition: First-order iterations versus Newton-based techniques," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1291-1318, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1998. "High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 191-214, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1999. "Simplicity versus optimality the choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Guy Debelle, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/35, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Peter B. Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus - Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 04/195, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, . "An Estimation of the Nonlinear Philips Curve in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 160, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  4. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Macro Dynamics in a Model with Uncertainty," Working Papers 0704, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  6. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 059, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ben Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2001. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/186, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Turgut Kisinbay & Ondra Kamenik & Ali Alichi & Charles Freedman & Marianne Johnson & Kevin Clinton & Huigang Chen & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 09/94, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, . "The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tambakis, D.N., 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy with a Convex Phillips Curve," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0859, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  14. Aaron Drew & Benjamin Hunt, 1999. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Eyal Argov & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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