This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Paul Cashin
C. John McDermott

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. While there is a downward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance as it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp0168.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/68.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 20 Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/68

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Commodity prices ; Economic models ;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
    Other versions:
  8. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. JAVIER LEÓN & RAIMUNDO SOTO, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
    Other versions:
  10. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Berezin & Elcior Santana & A. Salehizadeh, 2002. "The Challenge of Diversification in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 02/196, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, . "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  4. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rebecca Driver & Stephen Millard, 2004. "Exchange rates, commodities and the implications of volatility in a small open economy world," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 26, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Working Papers 03-24, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jose Antonio Ocampo & Maria Angela Parra, 2004. "The Terms Of Trade For Commodities In The Twentieth Century," International Trade 0402006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gabriel Srour, 2006. "The Implications of Trade Barriers for Sectoral Diversification and Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philip Borkin, 2006. "Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand’s Terms of Trade," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/09, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cohen, Daniel & Fally, Thibault & Villemot, Sébastien, 2006. "In Favour of a Fund to Stabilize Commodity Exporters' Income," CEPR Discussion Papers 5550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Gabriel Srour, 2004. "Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/60, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis," Economics Working Papers wp05-29, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  13. George Verikios, 2004. "A Model of the World Wool Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
    [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multiva    ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  17. John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 140, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  18. Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "The Long-Run Forecasting of Energy Prices Using the Model of Shifting Trend," Econometrics 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? A few items listed on IDEAS are over 2000 years old!

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.