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Price Volatility and Financial Instability

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Author Info
H. L. Leon
DeLisle Worrell
Abstract

Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be potentially useful in assessing financial soundness. Daily data are more revealing, but monthly series allow comparisons among many countries. Country specific models may be needed for more reliable inference.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/60.

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Length: 43 pages
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/60

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Keywords: Exchange rates ; Stock markets ; Exchange rate instability ; Price stabilization ; Economic models ;

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  1. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Mahinder Singh Gill & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Modeling volatility dynamics," Research Paper 9522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. E Philip Davis, 1999. "Financial data needs for macroprudential surveillance - What are the key indicators of risks to domestic financial stability?," Lectures, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 2. [Downloadable!]
  11. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Hatem, John & Virtanen, Ilkka & Yli-Olli, Paavo, 1992. "Stochastic modeling of security returns: Evidence from the Helsinki Stock Exchange," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 98-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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