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Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries

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Author Info
Mark de Broeck
Torsten Sløk

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Abstract

Several transition countries have experienced strong real exchange rate appreciations. This paper tests the hypothesis that these appreciations reflect underlying productivity gains in the tradable sector. Using panel data over the period 1993-98, the results show clear evidence of productivity-driven exchange rate movements in the central and eastern European and Baltic countries. Transition countries, particularly the EU accession countries that have begun to catch up, can expect to experience further productivity-driven real exchange rate appreciations. Evidence from a large cross-section of non-transition countries indicates that catching up by one percent will be associated with a 0.4 percent real appreciation.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/56.

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Length: 34 pages
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/56

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Keywords: Real effective exchange rates ; Transition economies ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  2. Kornelia Krajnyak & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 4. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1985. "Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tamim Bayoumi & Peter Isard & Steven A. Symansky & Takatoshi Ito, 1996. "Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region," IMF Occasional Papers 145, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mark de Broeck & Vincent Koen, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union - A View from the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Panagiotis Liargovas, 1999. "An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-318, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  15. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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