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Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

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  • Steven Phillips
  • Alberto Musso

Abstract

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/45.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/45

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Keywords: Fund; Economic growth; inflation; statistics; statistic; forecasting; samples; monetary fund; central tendencies; random walk; official reserves; statistical significance; skewness; normal distribution; surveys; constant term; projection period; statistical techniques; prediction; standard errors; correlation; statistical analyses; significance level; statistical inferences; statistical tests; dummy variable; mathematical statistics; outliers; probability distribution; measurement error; econometrics; computations; survey; statistical terms; data analysis; statistical analysis; probability; dummy variables; nonparametric statistics;

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Cited by:
  1. Roberto Benelli, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Boost Private Capital Inflows? the Role of Program Size and Policy Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/231, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2013. "Fiscal Deficits and the Role of Fiscal Governance: The case of Greece," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 5-30, March.
  3. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
  4. Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2011. "Projecting macroeconomic outcomes: Evidence from the IMF," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 415-441, September.
  5. Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909 (14 pá, Diciembre.
  6. Juan Zalduendo & Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 04/203, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Mikhail Golosov & J. R. King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Graham Bird, 2005. "Over-optimism and the IMF," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0505, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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