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Population Aging in Japan: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability

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Author Info
Hamid Faruqee
Martin Mühleisen

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Abstract

The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/40.

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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/40

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Keywords: Aging ; Japan ; Savings ; Debt ; Fiscal policy ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Kohl & Paul O'Brien, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Ageing, Pensions and Savings: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 200, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Jappelli, Tullio, 1990. "Who Is Credit Constrained in the U.S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Projected Population Aging In Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Steven A. Symansky, 1996. "Government Debt, Life-Cycle Income and Liquidity Constrains: Beyond Approximate Ricardian Equivalence," IMF Working Papers 96/140, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," NBER Working Papers 5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Albert Jaeger & Sheetal K. Chand, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Garry Young, . "The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 159, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Warwick J. McKibbin & Jeremy Nguyen, 2004. "Modelling Global Demographic Change:Results For Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2004-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lamin Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2005-450, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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