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Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s

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  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Robert P. Flood

Abstract

This Paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for twenty-three developing and developed countries through the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in the 1990s than in previous eras in the sense that the slope coefficient from a regression of exchange rate changes on interest differentials yields a positive coefficient (which is sometimes insignificantly different from unity). UIP works systematically worse for fixed and flexible exchange rate countries than for crisis countries, but we find no significant differences between rich and poor countries. Finally, we find evidence that varies considerably across countries and time, but is usually weakly consistent with an effective ‘interest rate defense’ of the exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/207.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/207

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  3. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
  4. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
  5. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569, May.
  6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons," HWWA Discussion Papers 102, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  8. Timothy D. Lane & A. Javier Hamann & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Ales Bulir & Steven Phillips & Atish R. Ghosh & Alex Mourmouras & Jack Boorman, 2000. "Managing Financial Crises - The Experience in East Asia," IMF Working Papers 00/107, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  10. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. repec:wop:humbsf:2000-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
  13. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  14. Chinn, Menzie David & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Interest parity at short and long horizons," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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Cited by:
  1. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2009. "A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2009_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Arnaud Mehl & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2007. "Uncovered interest oparity at distant horizons - evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities," Working Paper Series 801, European Central Bank.

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