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Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries

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Author Info

  • Prakash Loungani
  • Phillip Swagel

Abstract

This paper develops stylized facts about the inflation process in developing countries, focusing particularly on the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the sources of inflation. Using annual data from 1964 to 1998 for 53 developing countries, we find that money growth and exchange rate changes-factors typically related to fiscal influences-are far more important in countries with floating exchange rate regimes than in those with fixed exchange rates. Instead, inertial factors dominate the inflation process in developing countries with fixed exchange rate regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/198.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/198

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Related research

Keywords: Developing countries; Exchange rate regimes;

References

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  1. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J., 1993. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," Discussion Papers 1993_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Marta Campillo & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?," NBER Working Papers 5540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
  5. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
  6. Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1997. "Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CEPR Discussion Papers 1577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Empirical Analysis of High-Inflation Episodes in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 527-549, September.
  8. Prakash Loungani & Phillip Swagel, 1995. "Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 515, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  11. Gary G. Moser, 1995. "The Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 270-289, June.
  12. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Domac, Ilker, 2004. "Explaining and forecasting inflation in Tukey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3287, The World Bank.
  2. Mohamed A. Osman & Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli, 2009. "Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 118-135.
  3. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
  4. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Domac, Ilker & Yucel, Eray M., 2004. "What triggers inflation in emerging market economics?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3376, The World Bank.
  6. Uma Ramakrishnan & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2002. "Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia," IMF Working Papers 02/111, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Paul R. Masson & Xavier Debrun & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002. "Monetary Union in West Africa: Who Might Gain, Who Might Lose, and Why?," IMF Working Papers 02/226, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: Cross-country evidence," Economics Papers 2005-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  9. Mijiyawa, Abdoul, 2008. "Inflation and Democracy in Former Extractive Colonies Analysis with a New Instrumental Variable," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 28, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  10. Marco Terrones & Luis Catão, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, EconWPA.
  12. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund.
  13. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA.

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