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The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan

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Author Info
Ben Hunt
Douglas Laxton

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Abstract

This paper uses the IMF's macroeconomic model MULTIMOD to examine the implications of the zero-interest-rate floor (ZIF) for the design of monetary policy in Japan. Similar to findings in other studies, targeting rates of inflation lower than 2.0 percent significantly increases the likelihood of the ZIF becoming binding. Systematic monetary policy strategies that respond strongly to stabilize output and inflation, or that incorporate some explicit price-level component, can help to mitigate the implications of the ZIF.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/186.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/186

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Related research
Keywords: Interest rates ; Japan ; Monetary policy ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ben Hunt & Victor Gaiduch, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 00/158, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Buiter, Willem H & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 1999. "Liquidity Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Escape Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 2203, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Drew, Aaron & Hunt, Benjamin, 2000. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 143-160. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Randall Morck & Masao Nakamura, 2000. "Japanese Corporate Governance and Macroeconomic Problems," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1893, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bennett McCallum, 2001. "Inflation targeting and the liquidity trap," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David E. Lebow, 1993. "Monetary policy at near-zero interest rates," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 136, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad & Bart Turtelboom, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Efficient monetary policy design near price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 180, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. repec:bep:mactop:v:3:y:2003:i:1:p:1088-1088 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Harald Uhlig, 2000. "Should we be afraid of Friedman's rule?," Macroeconomics 0004016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor," IMF Working Papers 97/23, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Mohsin S. Khan & A. Senhadji Semlali, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  20. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 573-585, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Albert Ando, 2000. "On the Japanese Economy and Japanese National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 8033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Laxton, Doug & N'Diaye, Papa & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Deflationary Shocks and Monetary Rules: An Open-Economy Scenario Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Volker Wieland (Goethe University Frankfurt) & Günter Coenen (European Central Bank), 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 65, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Guenter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Vladimir Klyuev & Ondra Kamenik & Heesun Kiem & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Why is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?," IMF Working Papers 08/25, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 3895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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