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Key Features of Australian Business Cycles

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  • Paul Cashin
  • Sam Ouliaris

Abstract

This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia''s classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth). We find that while there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in Australia''s classical cycle, on both measures the Australian growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, our results indicate that over the sample period Australian (filtered) output and prices have moved in a counter-cyclical fashion, suggesting a dominance of shocks to aggregate supply affecting the Australian economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/171.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/171

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  1. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
  2. C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1991. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
  6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Cooley, T.F. & Ohanian, L.E., 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices," RCER Working Papers 188, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Eswar Prasad & Bankim Chadha, 1992. "Are Prices Countercyclical?," IMF Working Papers 92/88, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Allan Layton, 1997. "A new approach to dating and predicting Australian business cycle phase changes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 861-868.
  10. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  11. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  12. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, May.
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  16. John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1993. "The cyclical behavior of prices: interpreting the evidence," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  18. Fisher, Lance A & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1996. "Australian Business Cycle Facts," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(67), pages 300-320, December.
  19. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Keen Meng Choy, 2006. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: Stylized Facts from Singapore," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0611, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "An investigation of the behaviour of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 676-683, July.
  3. Francesco Grigoli & Dalia Hakura, 2010. "Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 10/122, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Structural VAR identification of the Turkish business cycles," MPRA Paper 21971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 04/136, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Korap, Levent, 2010. "A small scaled business-cycle analysis of the Turkish economy: some counter-cyclical evidence using new income series," MPRA Paper 28647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne.
  9. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyon ve reel milli gelir arasındaki çevrimsellik ilişkisi üzerine bir inceleme
    [An investigation upon the cyclical relationship between inflation and real income in t
    ," MPRA Paper 20266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case," MPRA Paper 21717, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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