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Key Features of Australian Business Cycles

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Author Info
Paul Cashin
Sam Ouliaris

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Abstract

This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia's classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth). We find that while there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in Australia's classical cycle, on both measures the Australian growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, our results indicate that over the sample period Australian (filtered) output and prices have moved in a counter-cyclical fashion, suggesting a dominance of shocks to aggregate supply affecting the Australian economy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/171.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 26 Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/171

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Australia ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2002. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1067-1109, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  4. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  8. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  9. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1992. "Are Prices Countercyclical?," IMF Working Papers 92/88, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Judd, John P & Trehan, Bharat, 1995. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 789-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Fisher, Lance A & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1996. "Australian Business Cycle Facts," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(67), pages 300-320, December.
  16. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Layton, Allan P, 1997. "A New Approach to Dating and Predicting Australian Business Cycle Phase Changes," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 861-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 04/136, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Phil Bodman, . "Output Volatility in Australia," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0106, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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