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Key Features of Australian Business Cycles

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  • Paul Cashin
  • Sam Ouliaris

Abstract

This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia's classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth). We find that while there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in Australia's classical cycle, on both measures the Australian growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, our results indicate that over the sample period Australian (filtered) output and prices have moved in a counter-cyclical fashion, suggesting a dominance of shocks to aggregate supply affecting the Australian economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/171.

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Length: 94
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/171

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  1. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Corbae, D. & Ouliaris, S. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Working Papers 97-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  4. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  5. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  6. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Eswar Prasad & Bankim Chadha, 1992. "Are Prices Countercyclical?," IMF Working Papers 92/88, International Monetary Fund.
  8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
  9. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
  10. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August.
  11. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  12. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
  14. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  16. Judd, John P & Trehan, Bharat, 1995. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 789-97, August.
  17. Allan Layton, 1997. "A new approach to dating and predicting Australian business cycle phase changes," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 861-868.
  18. Fisher, Lance A & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1996. "Australian Business Cycle Facts," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(67), pages 300-320, December.
  19. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case," MPRA Paper 21717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Structural VAR identification of the Turkish business cycles," MPRA Paper 21971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne.
  4. Keen Meng Choy, 2006. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: Stylized Facts from Singapore," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0611, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  5. Korap, Levent, 2010. "A small scaled business-cycle analysis of the Turkish economy: some counter-cyclical evidence using new income series," MPRA Paper 28647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 04/136, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyon ve reel milli gelir arasındaki çevrimsellik ilişkisi üzerine bir inceleme
    [An investigation upon the cyclical relationship between inflation and real income in t    ," MPRA Paper 20266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Francesco Grigoli & Dalia Hakura, 2010. "Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?," IMF Working Papers 10/122, International Monetary Fund.

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