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Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-Off

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  • Chorng-Huey Wong
  • Eric V. Clifton
  • H. L. Leon

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption of inflation targeting should cause an improvement in the unemployment-inflation trade-off, i.e., that reducing inflation by a given amount should occur with a smaller rise in unemployment. The empirical evidence examined for OECD countries adopting inflation targeting supports this hypothesis. Using a smooth transition regression model, it is shown that the improvement in this trade-off does not take place immediately after the adoption of inflation targeting; rather, it improves over time as the credibility of the central bank is established.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/166.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/166

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References

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  1. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
  2. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas J. Jordan, 1998. "Are there Shifts in the Output-Inflation Trade-off? The Case of Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(II), pages 121-132, June.
  3. Skalin, Joakim & Ter svirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 202-241, April.
  4. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
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  7. Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  9. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  10. John DiNardo & Mark P. Moore, 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 7328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Patricia S. Pollard, 1993. "Central bank independence and economic performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 21-36.
  12. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Marc Zelmer & Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May.
  16. Eric V. Clifton, 1999. "Inflation Targeting," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/8, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
  20. Guy Debelle, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/35, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Veloso, Thiago & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2007. "Inflation targeting and optimal control theory," MPRA Paper 3834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol?
    [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]
    ," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008.
  3. Lanzafame, Matteo & Nogueira, Reginaldo, 2013. "Inflation targeting and interest rates," MPRA Paper 46153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Sergio Da Silva & Roberto Meurer & Thiago Veloso, 2008. "Optimal control theory for inflation targeting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(24), pages 1-14.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:24:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  7. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2003. "Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods," Working Papers 03-7, Bank of Canada.
  8. Laurence Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Working Papers 9577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kontonikas, A., 2004. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-543, May.
  10. Larsson, Anna & Zetterberg, Johnny, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Labour Markets? – Some Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 191, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
  12. Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilization Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(5-6), pages 220-242, May.
  13. Ourania Dimakou, 2010. "Central Bank Independence, Bureaucratic Corruption and Fiscal Responses - Empirical Evidence," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1012, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  14. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, EconWPA.
  15. David Longworth, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 349-360.
  16. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent.

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