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Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

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Author Info
Eric V. Clifton
H. L. Leon
Chorng-Huey Wong
Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption of inflation targeting should cause an improvement in the unemployment-inflation trade-off, i.e., that reducing inflation by a given amount should occur with a smaller rise in unemployment. The empirical evidence examined for OECD countries adopting inflation targeting supports this hypothesis. Using a smooth transition regression model, it is shown that the improvement in this trade-off does not take place immediately after the adoption of inflation targeting; rather, it improves over time as the credibility of the central bank is established.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/166.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 19 Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/166

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Keywords: Inflation targeting ; Unemployment ; OECD ; Economic models ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Eric V. Clifton, 1999. "Inflation Targeting - What is the Meaning of the Bottom of the Band?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/8, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Paul R. Masson, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Andrea Schaechter & Marc Zelmer, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 202, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Nadeem Ul Haque & Mohsin S. Khan, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Oscar Landerretche & Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 106, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-59, July.
    Other versions:
  9. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  11. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas J. Jordan, 1998. "Are there Shifts in the Output-Inflation Trade-off? The Case of Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(II), pages 121-132, June. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mohsin S. Khan & A. Senhadji Semlali, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
  16. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Patricia S. Pollard, 1993. "Central bank independence and economic performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 21-36. [Downloadable!]
  18. Guy Debelle, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/35, International Monetary Fund.
  19. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/129, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Larsson, Anna & Zetterberg, Johnny, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Labour Markets? – Some Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 191, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  4. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Inflation Targeting: A Critical Appraisal," Economics Working Paper Archive 388, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. David Longworth, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy : commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 349-360. [Downloadable!]
  8. Veloso, Thiago & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2007. "Inflation targeting and optimal control theory," MPRA Paper 3834, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol?
    [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]
    ," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008. [Downloadable!]
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