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Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity: An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and their Systematic Components Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Iryna V. Ivaschenko
This paper finds that the yield spread of investment-grade bonds relative to Treasuries, a proxy of default risk, predicts marginal changes in industrial production in the United States up to 12 months in the future, even upon controlling for a commonly used predictor such as the commercial paper spread. The paper also finds that systematic risk factors associated with the yield spread of investment-grade bonds to a variety of risk-free benchmarks - Treasuries, agency bonds, and AAA-rated bonds - have significant predictive content for future growth rate of industrial production at 3 to 18 months forecasting horizon, both in- and out-of-sample. Finally, a regime-switching estimation shows that the systematic risk component is also able to capture "industrial production business cycle" well.
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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number
01/158.
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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 26 Oct 2001Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/158Contact details of provider: Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA Phone: (202) 623-7000 Fax: (202) 623-4661 Email: Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Bonds ; Investment ; United States ; Economic models ; Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Michael J. Flemming, 2000.
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2003.
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