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Is Foreign Debt Portfolio Management Efficient in Emerging Economies?

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Author Info
Khaled Hussein
Abstract

This paper develops a simple model of foreign debt portfolio management. The model suggests that, under mild conditions, the currency composition of a country's foreign debt portfolio is responsive to exchange rate movements. Empirical evidence is provided for a panel of 14 emerging economies in the period 1970-98. Attention is focused on the stocks of foreign liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars, deutsche marks (DM), Japanese yen, and Swiss francs. The results of the empirical analysis show that foreign debt portfolio management has been sub-optimal in the countries under examination. In these countries, the currency composition of foreign debt has not reflected a substitution effect away from the currencies that have appreciated over time vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/121.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 12 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/121

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Keywords: External debt ; Transition economies ; Debt management ;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1994. "Interest rates, official lending, and the debt crisis: A reassessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 263-285, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Anthony M. Solomon & William S. Ogden & Eduardo Wiesner & R. T. McNamar, 1988. "Developing Country Debt," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Cooperation, pages 233-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fry, Maxwell J., 1992. "Some stabilizing and destabilizing effects of foreign debt accumulation in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 315-321, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Boothe, Paul & Reid, Bradford, 1992. "Debt Management Objectives for a Small Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 43-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "The Optimal Currency Composition of External Debt: Theory and Applications to Mexico and Brazil," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 503-28, September.
  9. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  10. McCoskey, Suzanne & Kao, Chihwa, 1999. " Testing the Stability of a Production Function with Urbanization as a Shift Factor," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 671-90, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  12. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 4963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Junko Shimizu & Eiji Ogawa, 2004. "Risk Properties of AMU denominated Asian Bonds," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-45, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2008. "A simulation model of public debt sustainability," MPRA Paper 11713, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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