Short-Term Forecasting: Projecting Italian GDP, One Quarter to Two Years Ahead
AbstractThis paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/109.
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2001
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