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Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?

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Author Info
Thomas Philippon
Eduardo Borensztein
Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Abstract

This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest rates in Hong Kong react much more to U.S. interest rate shocks and shocks to international risk premia than interest rates in Singapore. The results are less clearcut in the comparison of Argentina and Mexico: While interest rates (and the exchange rate) in Mexico seem to react less to U.S. interest rate shocks, they react about the same to bond spread shocks, in addition to a significant impact on the exchange rate.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 01/1.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:01/1

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Related research
Keywords: Emerging markets ; Exchange rate regimes ; Monetary policy ; Interest rates ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Working Papers 00.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "Capital Flow Reversals,the Exchange Rate Debate,and Dollarization," MPRA Paper 8951, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1995. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio & Serven, Luis, 2000. "Global transmission of interest rates : monetary independence and the currency regime," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2424, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 2000. "The Pros and Cons of Full Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 00/50, International Monetary Fund.
  8. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," RES Working Papers 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2003. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Bilateral Exchange Rate: Chile versus the United States," IMF Working Papers 03/71, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay Shambaugh & Alan Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," International Finance 0407003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 178, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bluedorn, John & Bowdler, Christopher, . "Open Economy Codependence: U.S. Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Pass-through," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0615, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Application of the IS-MP-IA model to the Singapore economy and policy implications," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 15(6), pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 154, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181. [Downloadable!]
  9. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Yin-wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2006. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," Working Papers 192006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Sammo Kang & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "The effects of the yen|dollar exchange rate on the Korean economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 167-183. [Downloadable!]
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