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How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

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Author Info
Prakash Loungani

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Abstract

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/77.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/77

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Keywords: Gross national product ; Economic indicators ; Economic recession ; Economic growth ; Developed countries ; Developing countries ; Transition economies ; World Economic Outlook ;

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  1. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77. [Downloadable!]
  5. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2002. "Predicting when the economy will turn," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 15. [Downloadable!]
  6. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data," KOF Working papers 09-215, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Mikhail Golosov & J. R. King, 2003. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56. [Downloadable!]
  9. M. Sbracia & Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," Working Papers 124, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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