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Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World


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  • Alexei Kireyev


The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/54.

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Length: 52
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/54

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Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
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Keywords: Economic growth; oil countries; cointegration; statistics; current account balance; external shocks; time series; domestic economy; econometrics; standard deviation; terms of trade; oil prices; probability; statistic; commodity prices; domestic shocks; equations; equation; export performance; transitory shocks; trade shocks; oil-producing countries; covariance; vector autoregression; dynamic adjustment; open economies; granger causality; open economy; mean group; output growth; exporting countries; constant term; correlation; terms of trade shocks; per capita growth rate; hypothesis testing; diagonal matrix; mean group estimator; error variance; dynamic system; explanatory power; standard errors; significance level; economic integration; trade effect; world prices; importing countries; statistical system; standard deviations; fiscal shock; sample size; standard error; forecasting; external position; arithmetic; correlations; financial statistics; orthogonality; world economy; parsimonious model; confidence intervals; stochastic models; exchange rate fluctuations; world exports; survey; number of variables; pattern of shocks; polynomial; world market; samples; estimation period; statistical model; dynamic effects; time series analysis; price fluctuations; autocorrelation; aggregate shocks; oil exporters;


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Cited by:
  1. Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, 2013. "Does Volatility in Crude Oil Price Precipitate Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 143-152.
  2. Ahortor, Christian R.K. & Adenutsi, Deodat E., 2009. "Inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth in import-dependent developing countries," MPRA Paper 29353, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2012. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 273, Economic Research Southern Africa.


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