Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles
AbstractThis paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/2.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-16 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2003.
"Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong,"
122003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Lisbeth Zacho & Qin Lei, 2001. "Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness," IMF Working Papers 01/129, International Monetary Fund.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/20, International Monetary Fund.
- Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013.
"Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
- Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers CoFie-03-2012, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers 31-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Philip Schellekens, 2003. "Deflation in Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 03/77, International Monetary Fund.
- Wei Li, 2008. "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 627-643, December.
- Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 863, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.