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Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles

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  • Christoph Duenwald
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/2.

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    Length: 29
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:00/2

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    Cited by:
    1. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," Working Papers 122003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Lisbeth Zacho & Qin Lei, 2001. "Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness," IMF Working Papers 01/129, International Monetary Fund.
    3. A. Senhadji Semlali & Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/20, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    5. Philip Schellekens, 2003. "Deflation in Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 03/77, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Wei Li, 2008. "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 627-643, December.
    7. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 863, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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