Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?
AbstractThere is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the period 1994-1999 it is shown that historical values for interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices signal future movements in real economic activity. This result has significant implications for policymakers, and a composite leading indicator based on the three asset prices is presented, which contains information about the future development of economic activity.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 00/103.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan, 2005.
"The impact of news, oil prices, and global market developments on Russian financial markets,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 373-393, 04.
- Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan, 2004. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and Global Market Developments on Russian Financial Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-656, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2004. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and Global Market Developments on Russian Financial Markets," Finance 0403002, EconWPA.
- Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
- Owen Lamont, 1999.
"Economic Tracking Portfolios,"
NBER Working Papers
7055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
- Junttila, Juha, 2002. "Forecasting the macroeconomy with current financial market information: Europe and the United States," Research Discussion Papers 2/2002, Bank of Finland.
- Gongpil Choi, 2003. "The Choice of Monetary Regime for Post-Crisis Asia. The Case of South Korea," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1137-1160.
- Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2002.
"The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and International Spillovers on Russian Financial Markets,"
- Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2002. "The impact of news, oil prices, and international spillovers on Russian financial markets," ZEI Working Papers B 20-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Junttila, Juha & Kinnunen, Heli, 2004. "The performance of economic tracking portfolios in an IT-intensive stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 601-623, September.
- Junttila, Juha, 2007. "Forecasting the macroeconomy with contemporaneous financial market information: Europe and the United States," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-175.
- Norbert Funke, 2002. "Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/238, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.