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Deflation

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Author Info

  • Taimur Baig
  • Jörg Decressin
  • Tarhan Feyzioglu
  • Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh

Abstract

Deflation can be costly and difficult to anticipate, and concerns of a generalized decline in prices in both industrial and emerging market economies have increased recently. This paper investigates the causes and consequences of deflation, the risk of deflation globally and in individual countries, and policy options. The authors discuss issues related to the measurement, determinants, and costs of deflation and examine previous episodes of deflation. They compute an index of deflation vulnerability, which they apply to the 35 largest industrial and emerging market economies. Finally, the paper offers several policy options for protecting against deflation and for coping with it should it strike.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Occasional Papers with number 221.

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Length: 63
Date of creation: 30 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfocp:221

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Cited by:
  1. Heinz Handler, 2003. "From Hard Currency Policy to Monetary Union," WIFO Working Papers 210, WIFO.
  2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Romain Veyrune, 2005. "Le prix de la fixité : Application à l'Union monétaire des Caraïbes orientales et à la Zone franc," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 130(2), pages 63-76.
  4. Luke Willard & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 06/36, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2007. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
  7. Taimur Baig, 2003. "Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context," IMF Working Papers 03/215, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Hans Genberg, 2005. "External Shocks, Transmission Mechanisms and Deflation in Asia," Working Papers 062005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tao Wang, 2004. "China," IMF Working Papers 04/18, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Peng, Xuehua & Marchant, Mary A. & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Identifying Monetary Impacts On Food Prices In China: A Vec Model Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20315, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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