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Monetary Policy Transmission under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach

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  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (Currently in the Personnel and Corporate Affairs Department , E-mail: jouchi.nakajima@stat.duke.edu))

Abstract

This paper attempts to explore monetary policy transmission under zero interest rates by explicitly incorporating the zero lower bound (ZLB) of nominal interest rates into the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP- VAR-ZLB). Nominal interest rates are modeled as a censored variable with Tobit-type non-linearity and incorporated into the TVP-VAR framework. For estimation, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is constructed in the context of Bayesian inference. The model is applied to the Japanese macroeconomic data including the periods of the zero interest rates policy and the quantitative easing policy. The empirical results show that a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and macroeconomic variables is well detected through changes in medium-term interest rates, and not policy interest rates under the ZLB, although other macroeconomic dynamics are reasonably traced without considering the ZLB in an explicit manner.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 11-E-08.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:11-e-08

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Keywords: Monetary policy; Zero lower bound of nominal interest rates; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility;

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Cited by:
  1. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  2. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
  3. Michal Franta, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan Using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  4. Michaelis, Henrike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2014. "Are there Differences in the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan over Time?," Discussion Papers in Economics 21087, University of Munich, Department of Economics.

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