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Determinants of Households' Inflation Expectations

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  • Kozo Ueda

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Deputy Director and Economist, Bank of Japan (Email: kouzou.ueda @boj.or.jp))

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. We estimate a vector autoregression model in which the four endogenous variables are inflation expectations, inflation, the short-term nominal interest rate and the output gap, with energy prices and (fresh) food prices being exogenous. Short-term nonrecursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous codependence between realized inflation and expected inflation. We find, first, that responding not only to changes in energy prices and food prices but also to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. This explains why Japanese and US data indicate that inflation expectations lead realized inflation. Second, the effects of changes in energy prices and food prices on inflation and inflation expectations are large in the short run in Japan, while in the United States, they are not only large but also long lasting. Third, shocks to expectations occasionally fluctuate greatly, and can have self-fulfilling effects on realized inflation. The self-fulfilling property is more apparent in the United States than in Japan.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 09-E-08.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:09-e-08

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Keywords: expected inflation; structured vector autoregression; monetary policy;

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  1. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
  2. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2003. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/40, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Inflation Expectations and Money Growth in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 149-61, March.
  10. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
  11. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  12. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-73, May.
  13. Batchelor, Roy A & Dua, Pami, 1989. "Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 252-57, May.
  14. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
  15. Pearce, Douglas K, 1987. "Short-term Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Monthly Survey: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 388-95, August.
  16. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, 04.
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