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Trade contraction in the global crisis : employment and inequality effects in India and South Africa

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Author Info

  • Kucera, David
  • Roncolato, Leanne
  • von Uexkull, Erik

Abstract

Estimates the effects of the 2008-09 trade contraction on employment and incomes in India and South Africa, using social accounting matrices (SAMs) in a Leontief multiplier model. Employment results are presented at aggregate and industry levels and examine gender and skills biases. Income results examine inequality at the level of rural and urban household income quintiles. The most notable finding is that India and South Africa experienced substantial employment and income declines as a result of trade contraction with the EU and the US. A large share of these declines occurred in the non-tradeable sector and resulted from income-induced effects, illustrating how a shock originated in the tradeable goods sector had strong ripple effects throughout India and South Africa.

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File URL: http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/2010/110B09_212_engl.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Labour Organization in its series ILO Working Papers with number 459401.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Employment working paper series
Handle: RePEc:ilo:ilowps:459401

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Related research

Keywords: trade; employment; household income; income distribution; economic recession; India; South Africa R; commerce international; emploi; revenu des ménages; répartition du revenu; récession économique; Inde; Afrique du Sud R; comercio internacional; empleo; ingreso de los hogares; distribución del ingreso; recesión económica; India; República de Sudáfrica;

References

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  1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yang, D.U & Meiyan, Wang, 2010. "Demographic ageing and employment in China," ILO Working Papers 457127, International Labour Organization.
  2. McDonald, Scott & Jansen, Marion & Von Uexkull, Erik, 2012. "The impact of crisis-related changes in trade flows on employment, incomes, regional and sectoral development in Brazil," ILO Working Papers 468902, International Labour Organization.
  3. Ronnås, Per & Backéus, Karl & Scheja, Elina, 2010. "Rwanda forging ahead : the challenge of getting everybody on board," ILO Working Papers 458009, International Labour Organization.

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