Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Did Political Constraints Bind during Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002

Contents:

Author Info

  • Orla Doyle
  • Paul Patrick Walsh

Abstract

Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become “winners” or “losers” of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were “not afraid” and “afraid” of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential “winners” who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential “losers” who should support left-wing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/documents/discussion/pdfs/iiisdp117.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp117.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp117

Note: Length:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 01
Phone: 00 353 1 896 3888
Fax: 00 353 1 896 3939
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Political Constraints; Prospective Economic Voting; Initial Conditions.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Alexandre Rekine & Patrick Paul Walsh, 1998. "European Trade and Foreign Direct Investment. U-Shaping Industrial Output in Central and Eastern Europe: Theory and Evidence," LICOS Discussion Papers 7398, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  2. Mathias Dewatripont & Gérard Roland, 1995. "The design of reform packages under uncertainty," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9607, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Neven Valev, 2003. "No Pain, No Gain: Market Reform, Unemployment, and Politics in Bulgaria," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0310, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  4. Fidrmuc, Jan & Doyle, Orla, 2005. "Voice of the diaspora: An analysis of migrant voting behavior," ZEI Working Papers B 02-2005, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
  6. G�rard Roland, 2002. "The Political Economy of Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
  7. Orla Doyle & Jan Fidrmuc, 2005. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Market Voting Behaviour," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp042, IIIS.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp117

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eva Mateo).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.