Did Political Constraints Bind during Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002
AbstractMany theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become “winners” or “losers” of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were “not afraid” and “afraid” of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential “winners” who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential “losers” who should support left-wing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp117.
Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Political Constraints; Prospective Economic Voting; Initial Conditions.;
Other versions of this item:
- Orla Doyle & Patrick Paul Walsh, 2005. "Did political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990 - 2002," Trinity Economics Papers 2000515, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Orla Doyle & Patrick Paul Walsh, 2005. "Did political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990 - 2002," Trinity Economics Papers tep200515, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Doyle, Orla & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 2005. "Did Political Constraints Bind During Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002," IZA Discussion Papers 1719, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-04-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2006-04-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-POL-2006-04-22 (Positive Political Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2006-04-22 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Valev, Neven, 2004.
"No pain, no gain: market reform, unemployment, and politics in Bulgaria,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 409-425, September.
- Neven Valev, 2003. "No Pain, No Gain: Market Reform, Unemployment, and Politics in Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-577, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Neven Valev, 2003. "No Pain, No Gain: Market Reform, Unemployment, and Politics in Bulgaria," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0310, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Fidrmuc, J., 1998.
"Political Support for Reforms: Economics of Voting in Transition Countries,"
1998-98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
- Patrick P. Walsh & Alexander Repkine, 1998.
"European Trade and Foreign Direct Investment U-Shaping Industrial Output in Central and Eastern Europe - Theory and Evidence,"
IMF Working Papers
98/150, International Monetary Fund.
- Alexandre Rekine & Patrick Paul Walsh, 1998. "European Trade and Foreign Direct Investment. U-Shaping Industrial Output in Central and Eastern Europe: Theory and Evidence," LICOS Discussion Papers 7398, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2004.
"Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behaviour,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Doyle, Orla, 2005. "Voice of the diaspora: An analysis of migrant voting behavior," ZEI Working Papers B 02-2005, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Jan Fidrmuc & Orla Doyle, 2004. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behavior," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-714, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Orla Doyle & Jan Fidrmuc, 2005. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Market Voting Behaviour," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp042, IIIS.
- Dewatripont, Mathias & Roland, Gérard, 1993.
"The Design of Reform Packages Under Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- G�rard Roland, 2002. "The Political Economy of Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eva Mateo).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.