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Global and EU Agricultural Trade Reform: What is in it for Tanzania, Uganda and Sub-Saharan Africia?

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  • Thomas Giblin
  • Alan Matthews

Abstract

This paper uses the ATPSM partial equilibrium trade model (developed by UNCTAD and the FAO) to examine the impact of various agricultural trade liberalisation scenarios on the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. The model is presented in some detail along with an assessment of some of its strengths and limitations. Two types of trade policy liberalisation scenario are simulated. The first is a set of benchmark total unilateral agricultural trade liberalisation scenarios - by the EU, other regions of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa and our two individual case study countries Tanzania and Uganda. These benchmark simulations give an idea of the potential welfare effects from trade reform. The second set of simulations covers different trade reform proposals that have been put forward in the context of the Doha Development Round. The paper focuses in particular on the Harbinson proposal. Results are reported for total welfare changes as well as more disaggregated welfare impacts on producers, consumers, and government revenue. Changes in export volume and value, and changes in quota rent from preferential trade agreements are also reported. The findings for Tanzania and Uganda are that the welfare effects of rich-country agricultural trade reform are small and typically modestly negative. This reflects both their trade balance in agricultural goods and the erosion in the value of some preferences in the case of Tanzania. Liberalisation by the countries themselves generates the biggest, albeit still small, total welfare gains but at the cost of lost government revenue and significant losses in welfare for net-agricultural producers in rural areas where most of the poor live. The paper is an important contribution in moving beyond the aggregate results for Sub-Saharan Africa that are typically presented in trade simulation papers on agricultural liberalisation, aggregates which include a significant diversity of contrasting individual country impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Giblin & Alan Matthews, 2005. "Global and EU Agricultural Trade Reform: What is in it for Tanzania, Uganda and Sub-Saharan Africia?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp074, IIIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoine Bouët & Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, September.
    2. K. Anderson & R. Tyers, 1993. "More On Welfare Gains To Developing Countries From Liberalizing World Food Trade," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 189-204, May.
    3. Delgado, Christopher L. & Hopkins, Jane & Kelly , Valerie & Hazell, P. B. R. & McKenna, Anna A. & Gruhn, Peter & Hojjati, Behjat & Sil, Jayashree & Courbois, Claude, 1998. "Agricultural growth linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa:," Research reports 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Peter Wobst, 2003. "The impact of domestic and global trade liberalisation on five Southern African countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 70-92.
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    Cited by:

    1. F. T. M. Kilima, 2006. "Are Price Changes in the World Market Transmitted to Markets in Less Developed Countries? A Case Study of Sugar, Cotton, Wheat, and Rice in Tanzania," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp160, IIIS.
    2. Alan Matthews & Tom Giblin, 2006. "Policy Coherence, Agriculture and Development," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp112, IIIS.
    3. Alan Matthews & Hannah Chaplin & Thomas Giblin & Marian Mraz, 2007. "Strengthening Policy Coherence for Development in Agricultural Policy: Policy Recommendations to Irish Aid," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp188, IIIS.
    4. Charles Augustine Abuka & Michael Atingi-Ego & Jacob Opolot & Marian Mraz, 2007. "The impact of OECD Agricultural trade liberalization on poverty in Uganda," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp208, IIIS.
    5. Jayne, T.S. & Mather, David & Mghenyi, Elliot, 2010. "Principal Challenges Confronting Smallholder Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1384-1398, October.

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    Keywords

    agriculture; trade; modelling; sub-Saharan Africa;
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